It has become obvious to both American and European observers that the cost of the Ukrainian war will quickly become unsustainable. There are growing concerns about what future envolvment the United States and Europe should play in the Ukraine war. What choices are still available to grant military success? What potential political advantages remain? More importantly, is there still any economical senario in which America and Europe stand to gain from this conflict?
After the first year of war the Ukrainian army has been unable to drive out its adversary leading to a protracted war or at very best a military standoff. This situation increasingly favors Russia, who could declare success for its “special military operation” if it is able to keep the majority of the land in the oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson that it annexed on September 30, 2022. Meanwhile, as the West pressures Ukraine to continue with its proxy war with Russia, the Ukrainian people and their homes will continue to be dessimated and destroyed.
With a GDP of just $100 billion, an estimated 25 million residents, 10 million of whom are refugees abroad, and a bleak future, the new fragmented Ukraine will be saddled with a trillion-dollar reconstruction debt. In just over a year of conflict, the reconstruction cost are already estimated be be equal to many European countries at the end of World War II. Since many of the millions who have departed the nation are unlikely to return, reconstruction efforts will be borne by a significant smaller population.
One weapons system after another was been hailed by American military analysts as the secret to success: Javelin anti-tank missiles, Switchblade drones, HIMARS, and so forth. Despite the fact that the West has provided Ukraine with sophisticated weapons, the Russians have effectively opted to use old-fashioned artillery shells to wreak havoc on their adversary. It’s uncertain whether the West has a leg up over Russia in terms of ground based munitions. According to Estonian estimates, Russia can generate 9,000 artillery shells every day, compared to the current amount of only 15,000 produced by the United States each month. According to a CSIS assessment from January 9, 2023, the United States’ ability to supply Ukraine with precise bombs is limited. In the meantime, Russia has increased the amount of mobilized men, enhanced ground-air cooperation, and systematically bombarded vast amount of territory.
Most likely, the West lacks the military power to force Russia out of Ukraine. On January 12, 2023, Rebecca Heinrichs of the Hudson Institute tweeted that the United States was in danger of “running out of specific weapons systems. Yet those weapons are also destroying weapons of a top-tier opponent cooperating with our number one adversary. Not a loss.” That is, in an effort to weaken Russian capabilities, the U.S. may sacrifice Ukraine in an unwinnable battle of attrition. Russia, in response to the West’s involvement, has been able to successfully organize a force that is about twice as large as its first invasion force and has exponentially multiplied its punitive destruction on the ground.
In contrast to early American predictions that economic sanctions would cause Russia’s economic production to fall in half, Russia’s GDP only dropped by 4% in 2022. The value of Russia’s exports to China increased from $86 billion in 2021 to $190 billion in 2022, while the value of exports to India supposedly increased by $27 billion from $13 billion, though the actual amount is likely greater. Despite a 10% volume decline in 2022 compared to 2021, Russian fertilizer revenues increased by 70%. With only slight difficulty to Russian consumers, Chinese and Indian products have largely supplanted numerous Western products. Increased exports to Russia from Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, and other neighboring nations have effectively avoided U.S. sanctions.
Militarily, the war in the Ukraine could pull Europe into a situation like that of the Vietnam War, where escalating the conflict could only mean escalated the costs, both in euros and in lives, but with no clear victory. Economically, the sanctions imposed on Russia haven’t had slightest result in abating its resolve to punish Ukraine.
So, what can be done if neither military nor economic measures are effective in stopping the Russian invasion?
The first of very few options would be to negotiate for a cease fire. A cease fire gives both sides the advantage of saving face and in theory signify only that hostilities have been suspended. This senario would most benefit Russia since Moscow could declare the annexation of Ukrainian territory to be successful if there was a cease-fire in place, even an armistice along the lines of the division of North and South Korea.
The second option would be to offer Russia the authority to monitor the regions it has invaded and promise the Russian speaking population of those areas their rights of autonomous rule, if only in the lower levels of administration. This is after all the justification given for the invasion and would be a compromise on both sides. Much like the Palistainian Authority, a similar situation could be negociated between Russia and Ukraine.
Another option is to continue the war and allow the financial and military support to dwindle. In this senario, the Western politicians continue to publicly support Ukraine but allow it to suffer financial starvation and eventually defeat. This would allow Russian soldiers to continue to harm the Ukrainian Army and Russian ordnance more time to damage Ukraine’s infrastructure, slowly allowing the country to inevitably become dysfunctional.This seems to be one of the most likely outcomes and an easy way out for most European nations that have supported Ukraine until now.
The last option, and one that seems to have been proposed by NATO inthusiasts all along, is that of a very large and sudden military movement against Russia itself. Although the Biden Administration appears to understand the danger of a nuclear response from Russia, the United States might use weaponry to attack targets deep within Russia or even send in US combat forces. The gamble with this option is of course very high and therefore an option almost only in theory.
Regardless of which road the West now takes, there is no easy way out. To abandon the Ukrainians is to allow Russia to squash them, to further finance the war is to sacrifice Ukraine in a proxy war between the West and Russia, where regardless who wins, Ukraine looses.
